(no subject)

[sanpaku_backup]

Although I continue to believe, as I just reminded flw, that "Kerry" is destined for the American political reliquary alongside "Tilden," "Stevenson," and "Mondale," I must say that when I heard about this whole Mary Cheney flap from the third debate, I laughed. It was so obviously a non-story. The Republicans so obviously wanted to change the headline to something other than "Kerry destroys Dubya once again." Don't look at the man behind the curtain!

It hit me: They're actually scared. Huh.

And of course they are nowhere near the bottom of the barrel of things they will do if there is any chance of Kerry winning, so it should be an interesting couple of weeks. I'd keep an eye out for bushy-bearded men named Osama being extricated from Pakistani spider holes...

Comments

[msmidge.livejournal.com]

Yep. Sigh. I'm avoiding the news for the next two--make that three--weeks.

[one-11.livejournal.com]

Scared? Oh yes they are.

And friend, this is not gonna be another Mondale. Even if it's a loss, this is not gonna be a stomping. Definitely not in the popular vote and probably not in the electoral.

Barring, as you say, Osama. Or a massive viewership of that bullshit Kerry documentary on Sinclair.

[sanpaku.livejournal.com]

Tilden didn't even lose -- the election was out-and-out-stolen from him -- but footnotes to history are footnotes to history.

Spewler

[flw.livejournal.com]

I am going to go on spewlering my Narrative Determinist outlook until someone in a Corduroy Jacket with Leather Elbow Patches punches me in the face.

A realistic narrative analog for the debates would be:

Goldilocks goes into the cabin and sees three bowls of porridge. She sips from the first bowl of porridge, "Eww. This porridge is too cold!" So she goes to the next bowl and spoons up a bit, "Eww. This porridge is too cold." Finally, she sets to task on bowl number three, taking a mouthful, "Eww. This pooridge is too cold."

And then she leaves the cabin. "I don't like pooridge at all, especially when it is cold," She thinks to herself.

Now, what the hell kind of story is that?

It simply isn't possible. And yet that is what happened.

Like the coin flipper who flips a coin that comes up "heads" three times in a row... They will believe with absolute certainty that "tails" is "due" on the next flip and therefore, the result of tails is more likely because surely the coin must remember that it came up heads the last three times. But it is not more likely (unless the coin flipper is in Florida). The odds are even. And if it comes up heads three more times, they will believe that the "luck plane" must be storing up energy to provide an equally remarkable string of tails. But it isn't...

So, the coverage will make every effort to bend the reality (Bush got trounced thrice, because he is a fucking idiot) to some sort of more appealing narrative structure. The presence of a "three" in this story compels, practically demands a baseball metaphor, which we should be seeing soon:

Debate #1: Strike One. Bush let that one go by.
Debate #2: Strike Two. Swing and a miss.
Debate #3: Kerry throws a screwball (dissin' Cheney's daughter) and Bush knocks it out of the park.

This model confirms everything that these people want to, need to, must, believe about Bush. That he ain't too savvy on the speechifying, but he gots guts. That even when he's a down and out, he never gives up. When it's all on the line, he can knock it out of the park!

That model and narrative is so compelling, so hackneyed, so hashed and rehashed, so trite, so banal, that people will fall for it in droves. It's what they want to hear.

Re: Spewler

[sanpaku.livejournal.com]

Only the dopiest of the dopes could believe he hit it out the park. It's more like, "Kerry throws a screwball and that's str-- OMIGOD WILL YOU LOOK AT THAT FUCKIN GUY HIS FLY IS OPEN." The story line is that "we don't needs no fancy-pants debates anyways."

But your narrative determinist perspective really is a lot of why I have said all along Dubya is going to win. The guy is where he is because a near-plurality of the public is convinced that the more they hear bad things about him, the more they like him. These are people who won't face reality until they are shot out of a tank gun.